Also this is an aspect of project management, which suppose to be know and widely being used in this discipline. In Israel, this can be compared with the predictions of the prophets.
The method is very simple, but it requires discipline to maintain it.
I use a large database or lists with specific tasks, where I write down three numbers:
- A= Worst case estimate
- M= Most likely estimate
- B= Worst case estimate
Statistical Delphy method
The Statistical Delphy method is the method I like to use normally and that method is developed by myself. Why? This method does not rely on humans and no panel of specialists or project members. It is based on cold facts and statistics. The good thing about this method is that it produces real estimates, which are very close to the reality, but the bad thing about it is that when you start to use this method, you don't have any (statistical) data (collected).
During the actual execution and implementation of the project, all the estimates of the (common or specific) tasks will be updated.
The good thing is, that when the project manager has this type of data already, and he is setting up and designing the project plan, he or she knows immediately how long a certain task or project will take when he or she enters the expected tasks.
This method also requires a good and specially detailed specifications.
An example: The developer must make a window with two labels and a button, which closes the window. The task of creating a window takes 2 hours, a label takes 1 hour and a button takes also 1 hour (according the numbers in the estimation database or list and that means that the task is finished in 4 hours.
Those numbers from the estimation database or list have already corrections build in, like corrections of a percentage of holidays, sickness, etc.
I also like to use additional data, like number of average defects for a given tasks, average productivity, bug density, average lag-time, defects, etc.
The estimates are being registered for each task, but also per programming environment and Operating System. Why? There are considerable differences in durations for certain tasks using different programming environments. For example, a task in C++ (VS6) takes six times longer then the simple Visual Basic 6. The same for the modern combination, Visual Studio 2008 C++ takes three times longer then the same, but then in C#.
Related articles
- Getting Reschooled in Project Management - How to Plan a Project with no Multi-Tasking (spin.atomicobject.com)
- Project Management (dipbagchi.wordpress.com)
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- Event project management (slideshare.net)
- 7 Deadly Sins Of Highly Inefficient Project Managers (noobpreneur.com)
- Introduction To Scrum (javacodegeeks.com)
- The PhD Thesis - A Crash Course in Project Management (insidehighered.com)
- Ethical Issues in Project Management (ivythesis.typepad.com)
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